Source: China Coal News
China’s coal imports are expected to enter a structural decline during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, as the country continues to reduce its reliance on coal and shift toward a more diversified energy mix. The forecast was a key topic of discussion at the 18th China International Coal Conference, held from June 11 to 12, where domestic and international experts gathered to discuss major trends in the coal sector.
Analysts noted that while global coal production continues to rise amid fluctuations, coal’s share in the global energy mix is gradually declining. China, in particular, has seen a more significant drop in coal’s share of total energy consumption, and its coal imports are expected to contract in the years ahead.
On the supply side, China’s raw coal output in 2025 is projected to rise modestly before stabilizing. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang together accounted for 81.6% of the country’s total raw coal production in 2024. Meanwhile, China’s thermal coal imports remain concentrated in Indonesia, Australia, and Russia, with Mongolia serving as a supplementary source. Coking coal imports primarily come from Mongolia and Russia.
“The coal supply-demand balance is a key factor influencing import trends,” said Feng Dongbin, Deputy General Manager of Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd. “With domestic demand on a downward trajectory, we expect the share of imports in total coal consumption to fall from recent highs.” He noted that while China has ample domestic supply of thermal coal and remains largely self-sufficient, its limited domestic coking coal reserves create a continued need for imports. Going forward, price competitiveness will be the main driver behind import volumes.
According to Zhang Aipei, Deputy Director of the Production and Technology Department at China Huadian Corporation, imported coal will still play a supplementary role—especially in balancing regional supply shortages, securing access to low-sulfur, high-calorific-value coal, and addressing seasonal peaks in demand. Annual coal imports are expected to average around 400 million tonnes, with a focus on higher-quality grades.
“In recent years, imports of low-calorific-value thermal coal have faced increasing constraints due to carbon emissions targets,” said Li Xuegang, Vice President of China Coal Market Network. “As domestic high-quality production continues to ramp up, import volumes are likely to come under further pressure. Overall, coal imports are expected to enter a long-term contraction phase.”
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